Indianapolis Colts Training Camp Preview

In a new article for The Farm Club, I preview Indianapolis Colts training camp.

The Colts enter year two of the “Andrew Luck era” after concluding a 2012 season that was equal parts exciting, emotional, and improbable.

The team had four fourth quarter comebacks and an absurdly good 9-1 record in one-score games last season. Entertaining as this was for Colts fans, these figures–particularly the latter–helped mask a number of the team’s flaws. Despite finishing with an 11-5 record, Indianapolis actually posted a negative point differential, scoring 30 fewer points than they allowed.

The Colts Pythagorean record was roughly 7-9, essentially meaning they won four more games than they would be expected to win given their point differential, according to Football Outsiders.

Teams that “overachieve” in such a drastic fashion one year usually regress and post poor records in close games the following season, as Bill Barnwell of Grantland explains. On the surface, the Colts seem to be an ideal candidate for such regression, but it is worth bearing in mind the 2013 team is not the same as its 2012 incarnation. The franchise was very active in the offseason and made a number of acquisitions, including badly needed help along the offensive and defensive lines.

Click here to read the full article.

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3 Responses to Indianapolis Colts Training Camp Preview

  1. Just because they won a lot of close games does not mean they will regress this year. Just look at the Baltimore Orioles. Last year they went 29-9 in one run ball games and this year they are so far doing better than they were last year. I think the colts will be a decent team again this year. Andrew Luck will be more familiar with NFL teams and many of the other young players will also continue to develop.

    • Yes, don’t get me wrong; just because the Colts won a lot of close games last year and had a negative point differential, there’s no guarantee at all that they will regress. But given their point differential and the general trends outlined in the Barnwell piece, they are a candidate for such regression, and it is worth discussing.

      As I mention in the post, reasons we may not see this possible regression include the improvements the team has made, and as you note, Luck’s personal improvement.

      Assuming Luck does make such improvements, and I’m confident he will, I agree that the Colts will be solid again this year and will be in the playoff hunt.

      • I got you and yes I definitely believe Luck will continue to progress. All these young QBs man watch out its pretty amazing what happened with position last year with so many young guys.

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