Eastern Conference Finals Preview

In a new post I wrote for The Farm Club, I preview the Eastern Conference finals, between Miami and Indiana.

The Miami Heat will take on the Indiana Pacers for the right to go to the NBA Finals, and while the Heat are heavy favorites, the series does not lack intrigue.

The teams are familiar with one another, with Indiana having taken the season series 2-1 this season, while the Pacers also took Miami to six games in the conference semifinals during last year’s playoffs.Indiana boasts a dominant defense, and one that grounded the high-flying New Yorks Knicks offense in the previous round.  The Pacers both protected the rim and denied New York at the three-point line, and it will be interesting to see how they will fare against Miami’s top-ranked offense.The Heat come into the conference finals after beating the injury-depleted Chicago Bulls.  To their credit, Chicago was able to put up a fight at times, as they took game one, and played the Heat closely in games three and five.  Miami, though, was ultimately too much for the Bulls and the outcome of the series was never seriously in doubt.

Here are some things to look at for the coming series, which begins on Wednesday:

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Knicks-Pacers: Game 2 Pregame Thoughts

In a new post I wrote for The Farm Club, I look at tonight’s pivotal Knicks-Pacers game.

The Knicks-Pacers Eastern Conference semifinal is very clearly a matchup of strengths on one end of the court, and a battle of weaknesses on the other.

Sunday, in game one, while the Knicks marginally won the “battle of strengths”–their offense vs. Indiana’s defense–the game was determined thanks to Indiana thrashing the New York defense on the other end.

The Knicks scored just under a point per possession on Sunday. While this is 0.08 points lower than their season average (which is 3rd best in the NBA), it was also about 0.03 points more than the Pacers top-ranked defense allowed per possession (via ESPN).

The Knicks effective field goal percentage was 47.5% in game one, and again, while this was lower than their season average, it was also higher than what the Pacers ordinarily allow (via TeamRankings.com).

The real problem for the Knicks was on defense, as Indiana scored 1.14 points per trip, which represented a staggering 0.12 PPP improvement over their season average (which was 19th in the NBA). It was even a terrible performance by the low standards of the Knicks mediocre defense, as they allowed about 0.10 PPP more than their season average (which tied-for 16th in the league)….

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Colts Draft Recap

In a new article for The Farm Club, I review the Indianapolis Colts’ 2013 draft. The Colts addressed a number of the needs they had, particularly on the defensive front seven and interior offensive line.

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Quick Look At How Bjoern Werner Will Fit in WIth the Colts

With the 24th overall pick in the 2013 draft, Indianapolis took Bjoern Werner, a German-born edge pass rusher from Florida State.

Werner fills an obvious need for the Colts, and will be tasked with filling the void left by the departing Dwight Freeney. The Colts did sign outside linebacker Erik Walden this March, but as I noted in my draft preview over at The Farm Club, his value is as a perimeter run stopper, and not as a pass rusher. With that in mind, the Colts needed a player in Werner’s mold.

Werner led the ACC and was third in the nation in sacks, with 13. For his three-season college career, he brought down opposing quarterbacks 23.5 times.

It is true that 6.5 his sacks last season came in the first three weeks of the season, against FCS Murray State and Savannah State, and Wake Forest (66th in the nation and 6th in the ACC in sack percentage allowed, according to TeamRankings.com).

There is a danger in reading too much into this. Production against bad teams is not on its own a reason to look down on a prospect. Steve McNair’s 16,000 yards of total offense, as well as Jerry Rice’s 50 touchdowns also came against 1-AA opponents.

However you want to judge Werner’s college production, college stats by themselves are hardly dispositive anyway. What is good news for the Colts is the praise given to Werner from scouts and analysts.

Dane Brugler of CBS had Werner as his top-ranked defensive end, touting his athleticism and footwork. He also praises Werner’s instincts in run defense, especially valuable for a Colts team that ranked last against the run in DVOA in 2012, and is used to its edge pass rushers struggling in run defense.

NFL Network’s Mike Mayock said he thinks Werner “will thrive in a Chuck Pagano system,”  while Ourlads.com calls him “a combination speed and power rusher who can play the run.”

Indianapolis Colts Draft Preview

In a new post for The Farm Club, I look at the positions the Colts could address in the 2013 NFL Draft. Their primary needs are on the offensive and defensive fronts, but if the right player falls far enough, they could conceivably go elsewhere.

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Looking At Miami’s (Few) Weaknesses

In a new article I wrote for The Farm Club, I look at the few weaknesses the Miami Heat do have.

Whatever your feelings are on the Miami Heat, there is no denying they are a juggernaut with a strong chance of reaching the NBA Finals and winning a second consecutive championship.

Miami (62-16) has clinched the league’s best record, and now has the luxury of resting players prior to the start of the playoffs, which will presumably make them even tougher.

The Heat are one of only three teams in the top eight in the NBA in both offensive and defensive efficiency, and the only such team in the Eastern Conference.

With that being said, the Heat are not without weaknesses and if they are exploited properly,there is a chance their repeat bid could be denied.

If you’ll forgive the metaphor, Miami is the Death Star of the NBA: an incredibly powerful force that can only be beaten by taking advantage of small weaknesses.

Instead of a two-meter exhaust port, the Heat’s weaknesses include rebounding and three-point defense.

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Final Four Preview: Louisville

In the final part of The Farm Club’s Final Four preview, I look at the Louisville Cardinals ahead of their game against Wichita State tonight.

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